What's the exact mathematical working on the flinch rate for double iron bash boosted by serene grace?

Apr. 11, 2023

just wanna know how the probabilities stack up

Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.

Serene Grace doubles the flinch chance from 30% to 60%.To calculate the chance that at least one hit flinches, we can calculate the chance that neither of the hit flinches then subtract it from 100%The chance of not flinching for one hit is 40%, so the chance of neither flinching is 40% x 40% = 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16 or 16%Therefore, the chance of flinching is 100% - 16% = 84%

Serene Grace does boost each chance to flinch up to 60% per hit. This was a problem in Balanced Hackmon not to long ago that got Zacian-Crowned quick banned from the format.

Statistically, it is a 60% chance to flinch twice, adding up to an average 84% chance to flinch the target.

Hope this helps.