What were the chances of these moves missing?
Feb. 29, 2024I’m in a Max Lair battle.Landorus uses Rock Slide and misses 3/4 of our team.I use Ice Fang and miss.What are the chances of this happening?
To clarify I mean this specific sequence of events happening.
Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.
Rock Slide has 90% accuracy while Ice Fang has 95% accuracy, so we’re going to have to calculate these separately. Let’s start with the Rock Slides.I had a formula here earlier for calculating the rock slides, but I’m pretty sure that formula was wrong, so I just pulled out abinomial distribution calculatorfor it. 1/10 chance to miss and 4 total attempts gives you a 0.36% chance of exactly 3 misses, or a 0.37% chance of it missing at least 3 times.
Next, let’s factor in the Ice Fang miss, which is a 5% chance. This one’s really easy, we just multiply it to our Rock Slides (remember that 100% = 1.00 for mathematical purposes):
