What are the chances of encountering AT LEAST one Munchlax after checking all four Munchlax honey trees? (% form)?

Jul. 20, 2014

In D/P/Pt, you can get specific Pokemon from slathering honey on a tree, then waiting 6 hours for a Pokemon to arrive at the tree. One particular Pokemon, Munchlax, has a 1% chance of appearing on one of the four Munchlax trees.

So, if I were to slather all 4 of the Munchlax trees in my game with honey, wait 6 hours, then check back,what is the probability that I’d run into AT LEAST one Munchlax after checking all four of those trees? (percentage form)

I’d also like the percentages for slathering 3 of the Munchlax trees and for slathering 2 of the Munchlax trees.

If I need to specify anything else, feel free to comment.

Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.

The odds that you encounter at least one Munchlax in four tries that have a 1% chance each equal one minus the odds that youdon’tencounter a Munchlax in any of those four tries, i.e.

1 - (0.990.990.99 * 0.99) = ~3.9%

You can calculate the odds for two or three tries similarly:

1 - (0.990.990.99) = ~3.0%

1 - (0.99 * 0.99) = ~2.0%