Under these circumstances, what is the percentage of me (already) finding a shiny?
Sep. 20, 2020So I know my odds are 1/8192 in Platinum.
I’m doing an Oak Challenge, as per usual, and I’m quite surprised that I have not found a shiny. I have 80 hours. Hypothetically, if I encountered 1 Pokemon per 2.5 minutes (to make up for travel/idle time), what is the potential percentage of me already/could’ve found a shiny?
Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.
Expanding on Mega-Blade X’s answer, using “number of attempts / denominator of odds” is an okay shorthand formula for calculating the cumulative chance if the number of attempts is way less than the odds, but starts getting further from the truth the more attempts you do. The actual formula is (1 - (inverse odds)^(number of attempts)). So, for Gen 4 full odds, that’s (1 - (8191/8192)^(attempts)). Then if you want it as a percentage, you’d multiply it by 100%.Using the actual formula and plugging Mega-Blade’s calculated attempts of 1920, we get(1-(8191/8192)^1920), which gives us a final true chance of20.8946% chanceof having found a shiny.
